Ahead of 2015 general elections, presidential contenders under the All Progressives Congress (APC) are warming up. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the antecedents of the aspirants and issues that may shape the proposed primaries.
The challenges are overwhelming: the poor economy, failed budgets, insecurity, energy crisis, bad roads, rot in the aviation sector, soaring unemployment and corruption. Who will fix Nigeria in 2015?
In 1999, hope became the elixir of life for the country. But, today, cries of despondency are on the increase. Under the first Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) government, efforts were made to lay a good foundation in the post-military era. But, as from 2003, the Presidency derailed. President Olusegun Obasanjo’s successor, the late Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, was also distracted by protracted illness, which ultimately claimed his life. It is believed that his successor, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, has not got it right since then. The future appears bleak. The Federal Government’s transformation agenda is beautiful on paper, but its faulty implementation has led to a disaster. Fourteen years after, eyes are on the main opposition party. Can the All Progressives Congress (APC) seize the storm?
There is no scarcity of presidential materials in the APC. The party parades heavyweights and credible politicians across the six geo-political zones. However, there are indications that the opposition party will zone the slot to the North. The aspirants are warming up for the selection process.
A party chieftain from the North disclosed that eyes are on six chieftains as the party prepares for its inaugural primaries, which will be heralded by the national convention. “We know that the Southwest, the Southeast and the Southsouth are out of the primaries. Although the guidelines are not yet out, but there is this understanding that the presidential slot would be zoned to the three zones -Northwestm Northeast and Northcentral. But, the cooperation of other zones will ensure the emergence of a credible candidate”, he said.
Some of the aspirants are former military Head of State Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, former governor of Kwara State Senator Bukola Saraki, Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwakwanso, presidential candidate of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, and publisher of the Leadership Newspaper Sam Nda-Isaiah. At the weekend, it was also learnt that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar may revive his presidential ambition on the APC platform. He defected to the party yesterday. In the last few weeks, he has been on tour of the country for consultations with his supporters. The name of a leading federal legislator from the Northwest has also come up, although he has not defected from the ruling party. One of his colleagues from Lagos State said the House of Representatives member may be the last key defector. In this season of the realignment of forces, there are some legislators in the PDP who are staying back for strategic reasons. Their souls are in the APC,” he added.
In the APC, there are two strands of opinion that may shape the presidential nomination. A section of the party is pushing for generational shift, claiming that presidential activities nowadays are very rigorous. They believe that young, dynamic, brilliant, credible and fertile minds are better equipped for the rigour. But, another section is of the view that the criteria should exclude age, adding that merit, antecedents, credibility and public record of an aspirant should be considered.
In 2015, three factors are also important. For political expediency, the parties will be responding to pressures and constraints imposed by religion, ethnicity and contradiction within the parties. It is gradually becoming a norm that, if a Muslim from the North is the presidential candidate of any major party, his running mate will be a Christian from the South and vice versa. This, analysts contend, has become a stumbling block to merit. Instructively, pairing two people from the religious divides together for presidential elections is not a guarantor of good governance. The potency of religious balance is also debatable. In 1993, the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) Muslim/Muslim ticket of the late Alhaji Moshood Abiola and Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe defeated the national Republican Convention (NRC) Muslim/ Christian ticket of Alhaji Othma Tofa and Sylvester Ugoh.
Observers are raising concern over the neglect of internal democracy. But, it appears that critics and party leaders have divergent views about what constitutes internal democracy. In the PDP, the President is likely to intimidate other aspirants at the primaries. In the APC, it is not yet clear how this vexed issue will be handled, until the release of the nomination guidelines after the national convention. But, a party source said that, judging by the antecedents of its founding fathers, the APC leaders will be ready to give concessions, build consensus, strive at an accord and work for concord within the organisation.
Aspirants:
Buhari
One quarter of the history of Nigeria is about General Buhari, former military Head of State. He is an experienced politician, a statesman and an incorruptible figure in a society that has produced many soldiers of fortune. Buhari fought gallantly on the federal side during the civil war. Shortly, after the war, he became the governor of the defunct Northeastern State. When the late Gen. Muritala Muhammed became the Head of State, Buhari was appointed as the Federal Commissioner for Petroleum Resources and Chairman of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). In the Second Republic, he was the General officer Commanding (GOC), Third Armoured Division, Jos. On December 31, 1983, Buhari became the Head of State.
The former Head of State had a mission. He wanted to get rid of corruption. He also wanted to restore public discipline. Thus, he stepped on toes. Buhari presided over an administration that intended to return Nigeria to his glorious past. He paid the national debt and ensure that the nation did not incur a new debt. Many corrupt politicians were tried for graft. He also restore national security, which had been threatened by the rising wave of armed robbery. In running the country, he was assisted by a diligent deputy, the late Gen. Tunde Idiagbon. Although the regime was accused of high handedness, it was undeterred in its focus and mission to enforce discipline and public morality. However, he was toppled in August 1985. Buhari was in detention for almost two years. In retirement, he led a quite life. When he became the Chairman of the Petroleum Tax Fund (PTF), he fought infrastructure battle nationwide without enriching himself.
The Daura-born soldier-turned politician is a veteran presidential candidate. In 2003, Buhari joined the fray. Obasanjo government had started to drift. He contested for the Presidency in that year under the platform of the All Nigerian Peoples Congress (ANPP). He lost his deposit. In 2007, he also contested against Yar’Adua, but without success. But, the former President later confessed that the poll was severely flawed. In 2011, Buhari also tried his luck on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). He lost to President Jonathan. However, owing to his influence, voters voted out the PDP in Kano, Nasarawa states. Buhari has a mass appeal. Many look up to the General for leadership in the North.
Reality had dawned on Buhari that, unless the opposition figures work together to change the government, the ruling party will continue to mismanage the affairs of the country. Therefore, his party, the CPC, the ACN, the ANPP and a section of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) merged together in the APC. It was a great sacrifice made in the national interest.
Buhari has not jettisoned his ambition to return to power. But, for him, it is not a do or die affair. His primary goal, according to his associates, is the repositioning of the country. To him, the PDP has failed to make impact 14 years after. “It is not about me, it is about the nation. We need change in 2015. APC will rule this country and bring that change”, he said.
Kwakwanso
Kwankwano made history in the Third Republic when he emerged as the deputy speaker of the House of Representatives. A grassroots operator, has remained a household name in Kano State for three decades. In 1999, he became the governor of the state. But, he was defeated by his rival, Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau of the defunct ANPP, who ruled for eight years. Between 2003 and 2007, Kwankwaso served as the Minister of Defence. But, he bounced back in 2011, when he was re-elected as the governor. It is believed that the governor has performed in his state and there were indications that he was being encouraged to declare a presidential interest before he called it quits with the PDP.
Kwankwaso is among the five PDP governors, who recently defected to the APC. The fact that many big wigs, including state and federal legislators, followed him to the new party showed that he has a large following. He is today a national leader of the party.
Ribadu
Ribadu’s service to the nation as the anti-graft curator is legendary. He was the first Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Under his leadership, the agency recorded some achievements. The fear of the EFCC became the beginning of wisdom for many corrupt politicians.
A police officer and lawyer, Ribadu approached his duties with patriotism. He stepped on toes. Many convicted public officers perceived him as personal foes. As the head of a controversial organisation, his career was also embroiled in controversy. There were allegations that the power that be was using the EFCC to witch hunt perceived foes. Ribadu also became a victim of jealousy in the police. His ouster as the anti-graft boss was dramatic. He was promoted to the position of the Assistant Inspector General of Police. But, he was also asked to proceed on study leave at the Nigerian Institute of Strategic Studies (NISS), Kuru, Jos. His days as the EFCC Chairman were numbered. When his life was in danger, he fled the country.
In 2011, he returned to fly the flag of the defunct ACN at the presidential election. He lost to President Jonathan at the poll. Thos who believe in him point out that age is on his side and he has integrity. Ribadu’s associates confided that the retired police officer is interested in the presidential race. he is trying to revive his structure. He is also holding consultation across the zones.
Saraki
Senator Bukola Saraki is a medical doctor and inheritor of the gigantic political structure of his illustrious father, the late Waziri of Ilorin, Dr. Olusola Saraki. Between 1999 and 2003, he was a Senior Special Assistant on Food Security to former President Olusegun Obasanjo. As the governor of Kwara State between 2003 and 2011, he performed creditably. His feats across the sectors were visible. Saraki was the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF). In 2011, he joined the presidential race in the PDP. But, the Northern establishment did not pick him. A group of Northern Elders selected Atiku Abubakar, who was defeated by Dr. Jonathan at the primaries. Supporters of Saraki believe that he will be the bridge between the North and South, if selected as the APC presidential candidate.
Abubakar
Abubakar is another veteran presidential aspirant. He had contested for the exalted seat in 2007 and 2011, but lost his deposit. Had he thrown his hat into the ring in 2003, may be, the story would have been different. But, he deferred to his boss, Obasanjo, hoping to succeed him in 2007. The marriage had turned sour before the poll.
In 2003, the Turaki Adamawa emerged as the arrowhead of the progressives. He was the presidential flag bearer of the ACN. But, shortly after the election, he retraced his steps to the PDP. The move infuriated the ACN family. Following his return to the PDP, he visited Obasanjo in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, in a fence-mending move, but there was no real renewal of political contact between the former President and his deputy. Last year, the former President castigated him at a public lecture in Ibadan, Oyo State capital. He also explained why he refused to hand over to him. In the PDP, Abubakar has been deliberately sidelined. He was among the aggrieved PDP chieftains who stormed out of the party’s rancorous convention in Abuja last year to form the ‘New PDP. Many believe that Abubakar has a towering political stature. A detribalised Nigerian, he has many friends across the country.
Nda-Isaiah
Nda-Isaiah is the publisher of the Leadership Newspaper. He is the only aspirant who has declared his ambition in the public.
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